The National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2022 provides the most advanced and comprehensive forecast to date of earthquake shaking across Aotearoa New Zealand. The 2022 revision shows that seismic hazard has increased across most of the country, with many regions experiencing average hazard increases of 50% or more compared with previous modelling in 2010. This shift reflects major scientific advances in recent years, including improved understanding of earthquake behaviour, enhanced computational modelling, and richer datasets from global and local research.

At its core, the NSHM estimates the likelihood and strength of ground shaking at any location in New Zealand over various timeframes. It incorporates hundreds of thousands of model variations (almost a million in total!) to capture uncertainty and represent the full spectrum of possible earthquake sources. Key contributors to elevated hazard levels include the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, the Alpine Fault, and the potential for multi‑fault ruptures, as well as previously unmapped or “hidden” faults.

NSHMs are a cornerstone of New Zealand’s seismic resilience framework. They inform Building Code-related requirements, infrastructure design standards, insurance and reinsurance modelling, emergency management planning, and land‑use decision‑making. While the NSHM does not assess risk or prescribe policy, it provides the scientific foundation for agencies and industry to make risk‑based decisions that protect people, property, and the economy.

The 2022 NSHM was developed with national and international collaborators, represents world‑leading science and is freely accessible through the NSHM portal.